So, it's that time again! Award Season is in full effect with the Golden Globes and SAG Awards having already taken place, which can mean only one thing! The Academy Awards are right around the corner. On Sunday, March 2nd, Hollywood's elite will pack into the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California to honor the best films of 2013 (or what the Academy believes to be the best films) and the creative minds behind them. And, of course, what would the Oscars be without some good-natured complaining and predictions. So, here I am to do just that!
BEST DIRECTOR:
Alexander Payne for Nebraska
Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
David O. Russell for American Hustle
Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street
Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
Usually the best director category is one of the hardest ones for me to work out. It's easily the category I'm wrong in most of the time (though last year was mainly a result of the Academy not loving Lincoln in general nearly as much as I believed they would). And while, like every year, this year is particularly strong (even with a couple of glaring omissions), I'm pretty convinced that the result will follow what we've seen so far this award. Though it's possible that Academy favorite David O. Russell could steal it away, or that Steve McQueen's unflinchingly brutal style will impress voters enough to win him his first award, I believe there's only one director that can possibly take the award this year...
Winner: Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity - No other film this year was more visually spectacular than the "No one can hear you scream" space epic, Gravity. From the breathtaking digital visuals to the amazing use of sound and silence to the awe-inspiring long takes (including a 15-minute opening sequence that rivals any opening scene in the history of cinema in sheer awe), Alfonso Cuaron took what everyone thought to be impossible and turned it into an absolutely marvelous piece of art, a true cinematic achievement.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
Julia Roberts for August: Osage County
June Squib for Nebraska
Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave
Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine
I wanted to go ahead and get this one out of the way. Admittedly, this is the category about which I have the least knowledge, though for which I believe I can still predict a winner. Unfortunately, I haven't gotten to see August: Osage County, Nebraska or Blue (though I will have seen two of the those three come the end of the week). However, I have read a lot about each of these movies and have read a lot about this race in particular, and from all that I believe that though I've only seen two of the three films in this category, I've seen the two that matter...
Winner: Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave - This race essentially comes down to either Jennifer Lawrence who wins every award she's ever nominated for or newcomer Lupita Nyong'o for her stunning and courageous performance as Patsey in Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave. At first, I was convinced the Academy would just give the award to Lawrence because that's their move. I don't believe her performance is better than Nyong'o's, I don't even believe it's that great period (though she's commanding in a few scenes, she often seems confused about who her character is and repeatedly goes in and out of her accent). However, that all changed with her recent win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Though Lawrence won at the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards are much clearer indication of the way the Academy will ultimately lean. Given that and the fact that Nyong'o delivered what I believe is the best supporting performance by an actress this year, if not the best performance by an actress period, I think she takes this handily.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper for American Hustle
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street
Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
I'm not going to spend much time on this category because, in my mind, it's far and away the easiest pick of the night. But while I'm here, let me just say this: TWO TIME ACADEMY AWARD NOMINEE JONAH HILL. That's something we have to deal with from now on. I can't say it's not deserved. It's just really, really strange. While if anyone could upset my pick, it would be Barkhad Abdi who, as another newcomer, it's absolutely commanding as Tom Hanks' opposite in Captain Phillips. It's not easy to go toe-to-toe with a legend like Hanks, especially for someone so new to the game, but Abdi does it in a way that seems effortless. However, no one is taking this from...
Winner: Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club - Unfortunately, I haven't yet gotten to see Dallas Buyers Club. However, I have seen clips of Leto's performance, read reviews, and looked at dozens of still images and I think it's quite easy to say that his transformation for this film is one of the most drastic and brave I've ever seen. In addition, his sweep of both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards pretty much lock things up for Leto. The singer/songwriter/actor is only rivaled in his sacrifices and physical commitment to his roles by Christian Bale. It's absolutely amazing what he has done for the art of cinema and the story he, Matthew McConaughey and director Jean-Marc Vallee is not only an important one, but one that is both necessary and courageous.
BEST ACTRESS:
Amy Adams for American Hustle
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench for Philomena
Meryl Streep for August: Osage County
Sandra Bullock for Gravity
This is the category where things start to get a little iffy. There seems to be an obvious choice, and one that I know most people are picking (including the recent Golden Globes and SAG Awards). However, there are a couple of other choices that I could definitely see winning in upset fashion. For instance, American Hustle received nominations in all four acting categories (especially noteworthy because this isn't the first time a David O. Russell film has done this), and in my opinion the strongest of these four performances was from Amy Adams. As such, though I would be shocked if she won, I can easily see it being a possibility. Likewise, Sandra Bullock is the only person on screen in the magnificent Gravity for much of its running time, and during that time she delivers what I believe is her career-defining performance. Also, there's Meryl Streep who wins every year no matter what and even though I don't see there being a snowball's chance in hell of her winning, stranger things have happened. And yet...
Winner: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine - I still have to go with the clear favorite. I haven't see Woody Allen's latest film yet (hopefully I'll be getting it this week!), but from all I've read, it's fantastic. Even more so, I've read that Blanchett is completely brilliant in the role. This is her return to a major role in over five years and with her recent wins at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards (and her endearing, if hilarious speeches), it's really, really hard for me to pick against that hype train. For my money, this is Blanchett's year and I am only getting more and more excited to actually see this film!
BEST ACTOR:
Bruce Dern for Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofer for 12 Years a Slave
Christian Bale for American Hustle
Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
I'm really sorry, Leo. This just ain't your game. I know even my friends who don't give a rat's patootie about the Academy Awards want DiCaprio to win this award. It's been so long and still no wins! Unfortunately, the trend has been that he's his generation's Peter O'Toole - always the bridesmaid and never the bride - and this year will be no exception. Likewise, Christian Bale delivers a heartfelt and hilarious performance that also required a great amount of transformation for it to work is a way that felt honest. However, he and DiCaprio, despite great performances are the two low men on the totem pole. This award is between Dern, Ejiofer and McConaughey. Though I haven't seen Nebraska, I read and hear that it's a wonderful film and that it marks a strong comeback for the screen legend. Likewise, Ejiofer gives one of the most tortured performances of the year in what I would consider the most difficult and fearless roles in quite some time as a free man sold into the disgustingly cruel world of slavery. That being said...
Winner: Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club - I know. If you told me a few years ago that Matthew McConaughey would be one of my favorite actors and the odds-on frontrunner to win the Academy Award for Best Actor, I would have kicked you in the face. But here we are. Despite the competition (and though I haven't seen Dallas Buyers Club yet and believe that Chiwetel probably should win this award), McConaughhey has swept both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards handily and it would be entirely silly to bet against him at this juncture. And though I believe Ejiofer might deserve the award more, it's hard to argue that McConaughey didn't put in an immense amount of work, both physical and mental, that resulted in an amazing performance. Like Leto, McConaughey dropped an ungodly amount of weight for this role, only eating a spoonful of pudding a day, putting his body through untold amounts of hell for the sake of his art. And if that's not worth rewarding, I don't know what is. Alright, alright, alright!
BEST PICTURE:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
Every single year this category makes me mad and this year is no exception (I'll get to that in a bit). However, here we are. The big daddy, the finale, the one you've all been waiting for. The Academy Award for Best Picture. It's interesting, it seems like every year the number of films that are nominated for this award that also appear on my favorite films of the year list gets smaller and smaller. But, that's not to say we don't have a wonderful list of films to choose from here. All in all, I will have seen all but one of these films by the time the actually show rolls around (unless the theaters around here step their games up and show Nebraska). And yet, only a few stick out as distinct possibilities to win. 12 Years a Slave seems possible because of its dubbed cultural importance along with the sheer expertise and brilliance with which it was both acted and directed. It is easily the most weighty film on the list and one that I expect most people see as the film to beat going into the final stretch of voting. Likewise, American Hustle is complete Oscar bait. Hilarious, historical(ish), fantastic performances, absolutely inspired directing, it just has that Hollywood-flavor that seems to draw voters in again and again and again. And then there's Gravity, the most technically marvelous film since Avatar. Gravity is a truly amazing cinematic achievement that pushes the medium forward into new territory while giving us a touching, genuine story about letting going and being reborn. So which one will it be? Well...
Winner: AMERICAN HUSTLE - Despite the fact that I would like to say 12 Years a Slave and despite the fact that it doesn't advance the art of cinema in the way Gravity does and despite that I would much rather see Her or Captain Phillips win, you just can't bet against American Hustle. It tied for the most nominations (10) with Gravity. It's stars are nominated in all four acting categories and its director is nominated for Best Director. It won both Best Comedy/Musical at the Golden Globes and Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards. And, like I said, it's complete Oscar bait. The only thing going against it is what I mentioned above. It's not as "culturally important" as a film like 12 Years a Slave. It isn't as courageous, it doesn't involved issues that are all that important in the large scheme of things and though it too is historical, the Abscam stings are not slavery in the antebellum south. Likewise, Gravity has done more for the medium than any other film this year and any other film in quite some years. Also, Gravity, in an unprecedented showing, took the main prize at the PGA Awards - one of the consistently best predictors of Oscar votes - making it a clear 11th hour favorite. And while I would say that if it doesn't win, Gravity will be the film to dethrone it, American Hustle is still the favorite to take it all and my prediction for the Academy Award for Best Picture.
QUICK HITS: Just as some last minute odds and ends, I wanted to quickly give my predictions for some less talked about categories. For Best Animated Feature Film, I see it being a race between Frozen and The Wind Rises. And while I believe that Miyazaki's last directorial film should take it, I think it's going to be Frozen all the way. It's hard to unseat the Mouse. Also, this year is the rare year that I've been able to see all the nominated documentaries (many are on Netflix, watch them), and as such, I can't see any film taking it away from Joshua Oppenheimer's The Act of Killing. As for the Best Writing categories, I like Philomena for Best Adapted and if not, 12 Years a Slave. And for Best Original, I really wanted Spike Jonze to win for Her, but I can't see it going to any other film but American Hustle. And though I've only seen one of the foreign films nominated (they're nearly impossible to get hold of), I'm going to go with The Great Beauty for Best Foreign Feature or The Hunt, because that's the one I've seen.
COMPLAINTS/SNUBS: First off, I'll say that I'm a little surprised that Tom Hanks wasn't nominated for Best Actor for Captain Phillips. His performance, especially at the end of the film, completely devastated me. That whole film was fabulous and I'm glad to see Abdi get some love. And while I understand that the Best Actor category is stacked this year, not seeing such an Academy darling in Hanks be nominated is slightly shocking. And now my major rant...
WHERE THE HELL IS INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS?!?!?!?! My favorite film of 2013 and a film, which I consider both nearly perfectly and achingly beautiful, was completely and utterly snubbed this year. Okay, Delbonnel got a nomination for Best Cinematography and rightly so (I hope he wins if they decide to again not give Roger Deakins the award out of some terrible spite they have for him), BUT NOTHING ELSE!?! Oscar Isaac gave one of the finest performances of the year (and of his career) as Llewyn and he sees nothing from it? Like I said with Tom Hanks, I get that the category is loaded, but still. The amount of emotion he has to hold within himself while maintaining a cold, cynical exterior is astronomical and he executes it expertly. Likewise, it's a mindblowing omission to not have the Coen Brothers nominated in the Best Director category. I'm sure Nebraska is a lovely movie and I really enjoy Alexander Payne as a director. Likewise, I love Martin Scorsese, but The Wolf of Wall Street is neither one of his best films nor one of the best films of the year. The Coens, on the other hand, are two of the most consistently brilliant, exemplary American filmmakers today (as I said in my Best of 2013 list). To not have them even nominated for the award complete invalidates it in my opinion. Go ahead and give it to Alfonso Cuaron or David O. Russell. But at least nominate the Coen Brothers, for Christ's sake. And finally, where's the Best Picture nod? There are ten possible spots and the Academy only used nine. That means they didn't wrestle with whether or not Inside Llewyn Davis was good enough to warrant taking out of the films they put in. It means they didn't even think it worthy for a nomination period. That means they believe there are nine films that are unequivocally better than Inside Llewyn Davis including both Philomena and The Wolf of Wall Street. While I don't mean to take a dump on these film, I can just believe that this is an opinion that can be justified. To not have Inside Llewyn Davis nominated for even Best Music though T-Bone Burnette produced arguably the best best soundtrack of the year, greatly harms the validity of the Academy Awards in my opinion. I understand why smaller, indie films are not nominated, but to utterly shun two directors who have previously been personally been nominated for thirteen Academy Awards, that have won four times and that are arguably an American cinematic institution is absolutely ridiculous.
And there you have it folks. My thoughts, predictions and copious/dumb complaints about what is the premiere award ceremony in the world of film. I hope you all enjoyed and I hope you'll share your own opinions in the comments or on my Facebook page. I hope you'll be tuning in on March 2nd on ABC to see how things shake out and hopefully you'll all gather back here afterward to see how terribly I did and read my thoughts on the winners, losers and the overall ceremony. Until then, happy watching and I'll see you soon!
